What Happened to The Running Back Market?
by Ayisha
Updated Jul 24, 2023
What Happened to The Running Back Market?
The running back market in professional football has undergone significant changes due to various factors. Pro teams have increasingly targeted the running back position to save salary cap dollars that can be allocated to other positions, leading to frustration and confusion among veteran running backs.
This trend has been happening for years, with the supply and demand dynamics playing a crucial role. Every year, numerous talented running backs emerge from college football, creating an oversupply of players at the position.
As a result, teams perceive running backs as interchangeable parts, similar to kickers and punters. This perception, combined with the salary cap constraints, has led to a shift in investment priorities, with teams choosing to spend more on key positions like quarterbacks, receivers, pass rushers, and cornerbacks, which are seen as providing more surplus value and expected points.
Consequently, older and more expensive running backs often get replaced by younger and cheaper alternatives, further impacting the running back market. The situation can be traced back to influential figures like Mike Shanahan and the analytics community, who demonstrated the effectiveness of their systems in producing successful ground attacks with various running backs.
Their approach led teams to prioritize value positions over running backs when allocating resources. While some highly talented running backs like Christian McCaffrey may still command significant salaries, the prevailing sentiment across the league is that the running back position is not worth heavy investment, considering the ongoing influx of young and affordable talent.
As a result, the running back market has experienced a shift in financial dynamics, with teams favoring cost-effective options and embracing the idea of interchangeable running backs within the broader football machine. Changing this market trend would require significant shifts in the league's approach, such as implementing a league-wide fund to compensate running backs based on performance metrics, but it remains challenging given the current salary cap structure and market dynamics.
Why the Running Back Market Went?
The decline of the running back market can be attributed to several key factors that have gradually reshaped the perception and value of the position in the NFL. These factors include a shift in offensive strategies, statistical analytics, financial decisions by teams, and the franchise tag system.
1. Shift in Offensive Strategies: In recent years, NFL teams have increasingly favored passing-oriented offenses over traditional rushing attacks. Coaches and strategists have realized that the average pass play yields more yards than the average run play, making passing more efficient and productive.
As a result, teams are allocating their resources to positions like quarterbacks, receivers, and pass rushers, which are seen as providing more value and impact on the game. This shift has led to a devaluation of running backs, as their contributions are viewed as less significant in comparison to other positions on the field.
2. Statistical Analytics: The rise of advanced statistical analytics has played a crucial role in influencing teams' decisions regarding player contracts. Analytical data suggest that top running backs can be replaced by a committee of players at a fraction of the cost without a noticeable drop in production.
Teams are now more focused on value-based decisions, investing in positions that yield higher expected points and surplus value. Running backs, with their declining production and perceived replaceability, have suffered in this analytical evaluation.
3. Financial Decisions by Teams: Several high-profile contracts given to running backs in the past have not lived up to expectations, creating caution among teams when it comes to offering big deals to players in the position. The likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, and David Johnson received significant contracts, but their performance and injury issues have not justified the investment. Such cases have led teams to become more reluctant in committing large sums of money to running backs.
4. Franchise Tag System: The franchise tag system allows teams to retain a player for one season, but it often limits the player's bargaining power and exposes them to greater risk. Running backs playing under the franchise tag face uncertainty about their long-term future, as teams can walk away after the season or use the tag again in subsequent years. This lack of stability and the inability to negotiate better deals have added to the frustration and uncertainty for running backs in the market.
The combination of these factors has resulted in a significant devaluation of the running back position. Teams have become more cost-conscious, opting for committee approaches to the running game rather than investing heavily in a single-star running back. The decline in the running back market has left star players like Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs frustrated, as they are unable to secure long-term, lucrative contracts despite their exceptional performances. The running back market's downward trend is likely to continue unless there are significant shifts in offensive philosophies, financial strategies, or the evaluation of running back contributions in the league.
Why the NFL Running Back Market is in Chaos?
The chaos in the NFL running back market can be attributed to a combination of factors. One significant factor is the shift in the way the game is played, with teams placing greater emphasis on passing over rushing.
The rise of passing offenses has led to a decrease in the perceived value of running backs, as statistics and analytics suggest that the passing game is more efficient and productive.
As a result, teams are allocating their salary cap dollars to positions like quarterbacks, receivers, pass rushers, and cornerbacks, which are considered to provide more surplus value and expected points. This has created a disparity in the financial treatment of running backs compared to players in other positions, leaving star running backs frustrated and struggling to secure long-term and lucrative contracts.
Furthermore, the running back market is affected by the belief that top running backs can be easily replaced without a significant drop in production. Statistical data shows that teams switching primary ball carriers often improve their yards per carry, leading to the perception that running backs are replaceable commodities.
Additionally, some of the biggest contracts given to running backs in the past have not panned out as expected, leading to a cautious approach from teams when offering long-term deals to running backs. The combination of these factors has created uncertainty and frustration among running backs, as they witness their market value decline while other positions continue to command higher salaries and long-term security.
What Happened to The Running Back Market: FAQs
The running back market in the NFL has experienced significant changes due to factors such as shifts in offensive strategies, statistical analytics, teams' financial decisions, and the franchise tag system.
Many NFL teams now perceive running backs as less critical to their overall success compared to other positions like quarterbacks, receivers, and pass rushers.
Statistical analytics have shown that the contributions of top running backs can often be replicated by committee approaches, leading teams to prioritize value-based decisions and allocate financial resources to other positions.
Several high-profile running back contracts have not lived up to expectations, leading teams to become more hesitant in committing large sums of money to running backs.
The franchise tag system has limited the bargaining power of running backs and exposed them to greater risk, leading to uncertainty about their long-term future and financial security.